Articles

• Dave Beach's Survey (Methodology)
• Dave Beach's Survey (Results)
• New Fidonet Internet Chat Page
• An announcement of a Party!

Dave Beach's Survey
- An Observation on the
Methodology
by Jerry Schwartz, 1:142/928

Dave Beach's recent survey of RC10 sysops underscores the difficulty of using polls to judge public opinion on controversial matters.

First of all, a survey such as this depends upon self-selection: only those who want to respond, for whatever reason, are counted. The fat, dumb, and happy rarely exert themselves to express their apathy. Professional pollsters take special measures to correct for this problem, such as contacting a sample of the non-respondents face to face to judge their sentiments.

Second, two questions which are actually getting at the same point may be answered very differently, depending upon the phrasing. My favorite example is the way people react to "Would you want to see your tax dollars used to help the unemployed?" vs. "Do you think the government should take money from you and give it to people who don't work?"

In Dave's survey, 83.9% of the respondents said that they agreed with the way their NC cast his vote; 87.1% felt that they'd been adequately consulted by their NC prior to the vote; but 74.2% are unhappy with the results. There are many possible explanations for this contradiction, but unfortunately we have no way of knowing what's really going on. Did people for some perverse reason want their NC to vote for someone they didn't want to win? Was the winner considered the lesser of two evils? Did different people respond to each question?

Third, when interpreting the results of the survey it is easy to undercut the statistical results by quoting opposing comments. Of the 83.9% who agreed with the way their NC voted, did none of them comment? (The only two comments quoted were negative.)

And fourth, the results of a survey can be skewed by people's perception of the pollster. Try dressing as a Catholic priest and asking people if they believe that all religions deserve respect; then try dressing like Ozzie Ozborne and asking the same question.

Dave Beach's Survey
- An Observation on the
Results
by Jerry Schwartz, 1:142/928

My other article comments upon the difficulty of finding out what people really think by the strikingly simple but profoundly difficult technique of asking them. This article deals with the reported results.

In his introductory editorial paragraphs, Dave refers to Bob Satti as being "maintained in office with the support of unelected, appointed Regional Coordinators"; but within the body of the survey he asks "Are you aware that it's common practice in other Regions to have direct sysop voting for the RC position?" I haven't seen the survey itself, so I presume that the editorial comments were added when the results were prepared; but even so, this suggests a contradiction: is it common practice for RCs to be elected directly by sysops, or are the RCs largely unelected as Dave implies?

Also, there have been repeated charges that Bob Kohl has so strangled the flow of information within Region 10 that the sysops are being kept unaware of what is going on; yet 80.6% reported being aware of both a recent PC filed against Bob Kohl and the actions of the RECC. That is odd.

83.9% of the responding sysops agree with the way their Network Coordinator voted. Whatever else that means, it says pretty clearly that the NCs did not contravene the wishes of those they represented. Regardless of whether you believe in direct or representative democracy, this survey doesn't suggest that the results would have been different if the sysops had voted directly.

Nonetheless, only 12.9% of the responding sysops are satisfied with the results of the election. As I said in my other article, there's no way of knowing why this discrepancy arose. Of all of the results compiled, this is the most troubling statistic. Does it mean that people don't think Bob Kohl has done a good job, but they want to give him a second chance? Does it mean that they don't like Bob Kohl, but they like his opponent even less? Does it mean that they aren't satified with Bob Kohl, but were afraid to take a chance on any change? Does it mean that there is some odd statistical corner case which reconciles all of these numbers?

Finally, 80.6% of the respondents answered that they didn't need their identities to be kept confidential; yet the one comment which was selected for quotation implied (as has been said over and over again by Bob Kohl's opponents) that anyone who speaks out in Region 10 is marked for excommunication.

We should be very careful about letting our preconceptions guide us when reading these tea leaves. No one of the questions gives anything like a complete picture of the situation; and taken together, they are a mass of contradictions. As such, they may well represent the opinions they were intended to illuminate.

FidoChat
by Dave Meikle
(david.meikle@sodbbs.camelot.co.uk , 2:258/69)

Last week I developed my web page @ http://members.xoom.com/Rebeljambo/ http://members.nbci.com/Rebeljambo/ [URL moved [jb 4/24/01]] to Run Realtime Java chat so everyone with access to the internet can chat about Fidonet online. I thought this would be a good idea so we can all have a say. I am also setting up a PowWoW confrence so anyone with powWoW can chat as well. Please logon and give it a try. As for the PowWoW I will arange a time so everyone that wants to can logon.

Dave

A PARTY!!
Paul Lentz 1:124/5025

Region19's Poor Man's FidoCon and River Party XI
July 25-26, 1998 on the Guadalupe River in Texas

Every year Region19 throws a party so every fidonet member can get a chance to see an RC with a beer in each hand, to show and tell the most massive hardrive ever made just before seeing who can toss it the farthest, to listen to tall tales from Wheeties, and to have a general good time. We'd like to invite everyone in Fidonet to come and join us 19ers in the fun!

The Place?
Whitewater Sports. This is a campground/tube rental place located on the Guadalupe River where it dumps out of Canyon Lake, just North of New Brunsfels, Texas, and roughly halfway between Austin and San Antonio on I-35. The place is pretty big with lots of spaces for tents and RVs, with about 75 acres to fill up. Reservations aren't required, and they have always said that a large group should not be a problem.

There are "rustic" bathroom facilties (if memory serves me correctly) including hot showers and there is a small store there for a few scant essentials you might need. If you really need supplies, you would probably be better off bringing them with you.

The Attraction?
Nice cold water! The water comes straight out of the bottom of a very deep lake, and flows at this location around a great mile or so horseshoe. This means you can drag your tube from the campsite up the main road about a quater mile, get in and liesurely float around to the campground again, and plus there are a couple of places where the water runs a little bit faster so's you can get dumped out of the tube and into the water.

Added Attraction?
New Brunfels Texas is close-by and we might wanna run into town for some of their great German food on Saturday night.

Directions?
First... Get your butt to Texas! :-) From I-35 exit at EXIT 191 CANYON LAKE 306. Go NW on 306 about 12 miles till you see Whitewater Sports on the right just before a bridge. Look around for us! One of us will have a crude hand painted sign that will let you know who we are.

For a few pictures of last years party see Ron Bemis's Web page at http://www.iain.com/~rbemis/ [faulty URL [jb 4/25/01]] Update: http://rbemis.iain.com/

also for a couple of pictures and link to a map of the area see http://www.startext.net/np/net124/pmfc&rp.htm [faulty URL [jb 4/25/01]]

Info and Rules:

• $15 per vehicle per night (tent)
• $18 per vehicle per night with electricity (wimps)
• $6 per day plus a $5 deposit to rent a tube
• $8 per day plus a $10 deposit to rent a tube with a bottom thingy
• The Phone number at Whitewater Sports is 830-964-3800

• NO PETS are allowed at Whitewater Sports so leave your real Fido at home.
• NO LOUD NOISE is allowed at Whitewater Sports after 10pm.
• NO GLASS or STYROFOAM is allowed in the river.

There is work going on at the dam and recent rains or lack thereof is effecting water levels as regulated by the Army Corps of Engineers. It is customary for them to bring the flow up to around 300 cfs on weekends to keep the fun going though. Whitewater suggests that if the water level is really important to you, that you call them before hand as they can update you.

• COMPUTERS AND RADIOS are discouraged (they'll probably end up in the river).
• Beer and Bratwurst is highly encouraged.
• Bringing Single unattached female friends with low tolerence for alcohol is highly encouraged.
• Clothes may or may not be required (check your mirror).
• Those funky "Lake Shoes" and sunblock are recommended.
• San Marcos and San Antonio are not too far away so any Hotel/Airport
• WEENIES should be able to find accomadations/transport allowing them to attend.

Hope to see everybody there!

*Paul*